Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 241   Bush 273

Data in Excel format Battleground states Info about the states Previous report News   Strong Kerry (119) Weak Kerry (52) Barely Kerry (70) Exactly tied (24) Barely Bush (52) Weak Bush (43) Strong Bush (178) Needed to win: 270

Sept. 29

New polls: AR CA FL MI MN MO NJ NY NC OK PA

Welcome	FAQ		Electoral college
Electoral college graph	Projected final map	Cartograms	Movie
State poll graphs	State poll tables	EVs as bar charts	More data

News from the Votemaster

New polls put Kerry ahead in Oregonby 6%, by 49% to 43%, and inFlorida.htmlby 1%. The latter means nothing, of course.With all the hurricanes in Florida, the outcome is more in doubt thanever. Will it effect the election? Maybe turnout will bedepressed. Maybe people will be angry at the government for notproviding more aid. Who knows.

Tony Blair has admitted that Saddam did not have WMD. In a speech to his Labor party he said:"The evidence about Saddam having actual biological and chemical weapons asopposed to the capability to develop them has turned out to be wrong."I wonder if the moderator of tomorrow's debate will ask President Bushif he still maintains that Saddam had WMD. Could be interesting.

The New York Times has an article today about how many of the swing stateshave been late in mailing absentee ballots tooverseas voters, a group many experts see as the key to this election. As a consequence, many ballots are expected to arrive late,which will probably result in legal wrangling about whether ballots arrivingNov. 3 should be counted. In the Florida 2000 election, some late ballotswere counted and others were not, leading to suspicions that election officialswere counting those ballots (e.g., military ones) that they thought wouldbe in their favor and ignoring those (e.g., civilian ones) that they thought would go against them. If you are an overseas voter who hasn'tregistered yet, go to www.overseasvote2004.com and registerright now, then follow the instructions on theAmericans abroad page, but do it right now.

Family values, Part I: Former governor Tony Knowles (D) has increased hislead over Lisa Murkowski (R) in the race for the Alaska Senate seat.Knowles is now ahead by 6%. Ms. Murkowski, as you may recall, was appointedto the Senate by her dad, the governor.

Family values, Part II: Marylander Alan Keyes, who is running for senator ofIllinois, has based his entire Senate campaign on the theme thathomosexuals are sinful, selfish people. He even condemned Cheney's lesbiandaughter, Mary. Guess what? Keyes own 19-year-old daughter, Maya,is also a lesbian and has been outed. The story is all over theblogosphere. One good place to look is www.politics1.com,one of my favorite political blogs.Another favorite of mine iswww.politicalwire.com.